La riforma dell’OCM latte ed il mercato delle quote di produzione

[Autom. eng. transl.] The dairy sector has been involved in a series of discussions on the reform of its Common Market Organization, which then materialized in the proposals contained in the Commission document known as Agenda 2000. Our work aims to assess the impact of some of the proposals, especially those relating to the granting of a direct income supplement, on the current market of production quotas, which are expected to be maintained until 2006. The analysis shows how the granting of such aid could significantly influence the market production quotas, even only in terms of expectations: this would lead to a probable increase in the price of the quotas which, in an efficient market, will be completely to the benefit of the initial quota holders. These results do not depend significantly on the methods of granting income integration (based on the quantity produced or on the number of animals), even if redistributive effects are possible. Our analysis also confirms the need to provide for maximum quota mobility as a tool to improve efficiency.