Il futuro tenuto a distanza: progetti di vita in sospeso

[Autom. eng. transl.] In times of crisis, life projects - in particular those that require empowerment, commitment e constraints towards the future - tend to be suspended due to of the uncertainty inherent in such circumstances [Kohler, Billari and Ortega 2002]. Among these, the choice of having a child is one among the most impacted [Adsera and Menendez 2011; Comolli and Bernardi 2015; Sobotka, Skirbekk and Philipov 2011]. In how the crisis linked to the spread of Covid-19 weighs on on the life choices of young Italians will be better seen in the next few years, when the (lack of) realization of the projects - especially those related to having children - will be evident. However, some studies allow for evaluating trends in act, considering the declared intentions on the possibility to postpone or suspend some of these plans such as consequence of the pandemic crisis. As for fertility, this is generally expected that, in high-income countries, the effect of the related crisis to the health emergency produces a contraction at least in short term [Aassve et al. 2020]. Some studies conducted on intentions of young people to carry out or postpone the decision to have a child during 2020 [Luppi, Arpino and Rosina 2020; Luppi and Rosina 2020a; 2020b] highlighted some differences between European countries. In particular, the countries Southern Europe, already characterized by pre-pandemic levels very low fertility and birth rates are the contexts in which i young people were more likely to postpone or drop out momentarily the plan to form a own family and have a child. On the other hand, in the countries where pre-pandemic fertility was higher, if not higher growing (such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom), the short-term effects of the health crisis on intentions of fecundity seem more limited, leading if anything to one postponement of the plan but not its renunciation [Luppi, Arpino and Rosina 2020]. In addition, the fertility plans of the precarious workers are more vulnerable than those of workers with a safer contract [Luppi and Rosina 2020a]. The prospects for the future impact of the individual income crises rely on reproductive choices: those who predict that the recession will negatively affect on personal income more easily suspended projects of fertility [Luppi, Arpino and Rosina 2020]. Somewhat similar considerations can be developed on the intention to leave the family of origin. Taking the major European countries by size of population are being examined and economic performance (France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom United Kingdom and Spain), Italy is the one with the highest percentage of young people between 18 and 34 who have decided to suspend or postpone the decision to leave the parental home in 2020 [Luppi, Rosina and Sironi 2020], closely followed from Spain and then from the United Kingdom. Even in this case the working and economic conditions (present and waiting) are decisive: those who have contracts with more precarious jobs or who expect a negative impact of the recession on own employment and income individual or family members have a greater propensity to abandon indefinitely the project to acquire housing autonomy from the family of origin. The reasons why young Italians more than their peers Europeans are suspending the life projects they are, in good measure, to be found in the pre-crisis context. In Italy the economic and social consequences of the great recession of 2008 were stronger and more lasting than in others European countries [Brandolini, Gambacorta and Rosolia 2018], particularly affecting the young population. In 2019, Italy continued to show one of the highest rates of youth unemployment (27.1% among those aged 15-34. Source: Istat) and the highest percentage