Did CIA interventions increase US arms exports? Evidence from the Cold War (1962–1989)

This letter explores the impact of CIA interventions on US arms exports during the Cold War. Analyzing data from 1962 to 1989, our findings reveal three key insights: (i) CIA interventions significantly increase US exports of both small arms (SALW) and major conventional weapons (MCW) to intervened countries; (ii) The duration of CIA influence is also positively correlated with arms exports; (iii) the impact of CIA interventions on arms exports of other NATO states to intervened countries differs based on the type of weapons.