Complex networks for terrorist target prediction

Gian Maria Campedelli, Iain Cruickshank, Kathleen M. Carley

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Developments in statistics and computer science have influenced research on many social problems. This process also applies to the study of terrorism. In this context, network analysis is one of the most popular mathematical methods for analyzing terrorist organizations and dynamics. Nonetheless, few studies have applied network science to the analysis of terrorist events. Therefore, in this work we first introduce a novel method to analyze the heterogeneous dynamics of terrorist attacks through the creation of a dynamic meta-network of terror for the period 1997–2016. Second, we use our terrorist meta-network to test the power of Network-based Inference algorithm in predicting terrorist targets. Results are promising and show how this algorithm reaches high levels of precision, accuracy, and recall and indicate that network outcomes can be used in broader machine learning models.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Pages348-353
Number of pages6
Volume10899
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Externally publishedYes
Event11th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction conference and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, SBP-BRiMS 2018 - Washington, DC, USA
Duration: 10 Jul 201813 Jul 2018

Publication series

NameLECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction conference and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, SBP-BRiMS 2018
CityWashington, DC, USA
Period10/7/1813/7/18

Keywords

  • Complex networks
  • Computer Science (all)
  • Machine learning
  • Prediction
  • Terrorism
  • Theoretical Computer Science

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