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Bayesian change-point detection for a Brownian motion with a total miss criterion

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We study the following problem of sequential analysis: we observe a Brownian motion which has a zero drift initially; at a an unknown and random time θ, known as change-point, the Brownian motion takes a non-zero drift. Since the Brownian motion is observed in real time, we want to estimate θ optimally by means of a stopping time which minimizes a total miss criterion, namely the linear combination between the expected advance in detecting θ wrongly and expected delay of a late detection. This problem is solved in the Bayesian formulation, where θ is assumed to follow an exponential prior distribution.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBook of the Short Papers - SIS 2022
Pages1197-1202
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2022
EventSIS 2022, 51st Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society - Caserta
Duration: 22 Jun 202224 Jun 2022

Conference

ConferenceSIS 2022, 51st Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society
CityCaserta
Period22/6/2224/6/22

Keywords

  • Brownian motion
  • change-point/disorder problem
  • optimal stopping
  • sequential analysis
  • total miss criterion

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