A methodology for measuring the probability that a given organized crime event will occur

The present article is the second in a series of three articles by the same author in this issue of Forum on Crime and Society. A methodology for measuring the probability of a given organized crime event occurring is presented in this article. The probability that organized crime will occur is one of two elements used to assess the overall risk that damage will be caused by organized crime. (The other element is the harm or cost of organized crime.)